Why Bitcoin Could Be Away From $ 100,000, Says Loyalty Expert

The bulls regain control after a brief drop in the price of Bitcoin. The top cryptocurrency by market cap is trading north of $ 57,000 with a gain of 2.5% and 11.1% on the daily and weekly charts, respectively.

BTC in a rally on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview

The overall sentiment in the markets is bullish as traders and traders expect Bitcoin to deliver on its all-time performance. The price of BTC generally tends to trend upward as the year draws to a close.

Related reading | Bitcoin Price Prepares to Take Off Again Toward RSI “Bull Zone”

Bitcoin is trading below $ 10,000 from its all-time high at $ 64,870 and could find itself in uncharted territory if, as Macro Director for Fidelity Jurrien Timmer said in a interview with CNBC, short-term FOMO headlines on BTC. These investors are those who have only had BTC for the last 3 months.

As seen in the chart below, only 15% of the total BTC supply is currently in the hands of “momentum hunters”. For Bitcoin to reach new highs, this metric must be above 20%.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: Jurrien Timmer via Twitter

In that regard, Timmer believes that Bitcoin’s current run to the upside lacks “excess,” which could suggest some stability and sustainability for the current price action. Unlike previous rallies, this time Bitcoin seems to be getting out of the influence of “speculators”, as Timmer called them.

However, some traders might find Timmer’s prediction disappointing as he believes that the benchmark crypto is far from the main psychological mark of $ 100,000.

Related reading | Short-term supply of Bitcoin hits record low

When the expert checked the Bitcoin / Gold ratio to analyze BTC’s supply-on-demand model, he found the following:

So is Bitcoin on its way to new highs? I know it’s best not to make bold price projections, but I will notice that the next (and last) time my supply and demand models intersect it will be around $ 100k in 2023 or 2024.

Bitcoin BTC BTCUSD
Source: Jurrien Timmer via Twitter

Bitcoin far from the top, bulls hit the gas

On the other hand, analyst Allen Au looked at the Bitcoin Pi upper cycle indicator to determine if the cryptocurrency has entered a bearish phase. This metric has historically been accurate in predicting market peaks.

As the analyst explained, it uses the 111-day simple moving average and the 250 simple moving average (SMA) of the Bitcoin price. When these two intertwine, traders begin to suspect that BTC has peaked.

Related reading | Bitcoin Whale Accumulation Patterns Show Strong Bullish Sentiment Among Major Headlines

Unlike Timmer, this model predicts a Bitcoin price beyond the $ 300,000 mark by the end of 2021. As the analyst clarified, Bitcoin must overcome the previous bull cycle for the metric to be accurate:

What I have shown is not to override the Pi Cycle Top indicator or agree that there is a lengthening cycle. What the simulations have shown is that the Pi Cycle Top will miss the peak of the BTC cycle if it happened in December 2021 unless BTC is in a supercycle now.

BTC BTCUSD
Source: Allen Au via Twitter

In the scenarios presented by Au, regardless of the exact BTC price prediction, the cryptocurrency will trend upward at least until it reaches its potential peak in 2022.

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