Originally posted on opportunity: energy.
It is a momentous time for electric vehicles across Europe. September sales have brought new records in the main car markets on the continent, and all of this is happening in the context of a broader crisis for traditional powertrains. In an end-of-quarter month full of market share expectations as well as individual model exploits, Italy’s car market does not disappoint with all-time highs and new entries.
Statistics UNRAE they are out and once again we find ourselves updating recent highs (and lows, depending on technology). The overall car market slowed a third year over year (YoY) to just over 106,000 registrations (up from 157,000 a year ago) with traditional gasoline and diesel engines more than halving in number and hitting new lows. : 25% and 19.1%, respectively, well below the 50% mark combined. Traditional hybrids now account for 31.3%, close to August records, thus consolidating their status as the most popular powertrain ahead of pure gasoline, a position in which they have been holding since july.
Complete electrics are the absolute stars of the month. With a record 8,492 units, BEVs more than doubled year-over-year (from 4,099 records a year ago, when current incentives began), updating the previous March high and reach a fantastic market share of 8%. That result was aided by lower than usual total registration numbers. With such end-of-quarter performance, can we expect even stronger momentum in the remaining three months? Certainly. However, this will depend on whether the supply from the manufacturers meets the demand.
Plug-in hybrids scored 5,507 registrations, far from recent levels but nonetheless a year-on-year increase of nearly 90%. This figure represents a 5.2% market share, in line with the rest of the year but much lower than the BEV result. With PHEV records stable, we could witness a return in favor of all-electric models over plug-in hybrids, as was the case until the end of last year. In the era of chip shortages, are traditional automakers finally ready to push their full electric offerings at “full speed” over ICE and hybrid variants? It would seem prudent to do so, and we will see how they position themselves in the last quarter of 2021.
With this exceptional month, combined add-on registrations skyrocketed to a remarkable 13.2% market share, a new record in itself (they topped 10% for the first time in July). This result is approaching the now rapidly declining levels of pure diesel powertrains. At this rate, we are prepared to witness a historic change soon, when plug-ins overtake diesel engines for the first time, perhaps as early as December. So which models are responsible for September’s unprecedented performance? Let’s find out on the monthly chart of the top 10 BEVs.
It may be late, but we finally see the new Dacia Spring sweeping the Italian market. In fact, it set an all-time high for any BEV model: 1,876 monthly registrations. The Romanian mini made its first appearance in June, and now it’s back with a bang, beating the market-leading Fiat 500e. The 500e has to settle for a now rare second place with 1,289 registrations still pending (its second best monthly result, only behind the December 2020 result). Will the Spring be the new queen of this European market that loves minicars? If Dacia can do enough of them, this will easily be the case. Fiat is warned!
A solid Tesla Model 3 scored 999 records to complete the podium for September, its second-best performance to date. US D-segment BEV is a consistent outlier in this A and B-loving market, and has a strong chance of solidifying this position in the year-end rankings, as we’ll see in a separate update. Given current lead times for deliveries and the imminent start of production at the Tesla Gigafactory in Berlin, we will no doubt see the Model 3 grow even further in the coming months.
Off the podium, the Smart ForTwo followed in a distant fourth place with 477 records, still among Italy’s super-favorite mini BEVs. It is in fifth position. However, the Tesla Model Y has just landed with its first batch of 430 units and is ushering in a new era that is likely to see a consistent presence of two Teslas in the top 10. Will the popular BEV crossover match or improve on the success of the Model 3? ? ? It would seem like a safe bet, but its higher price tag makes it a tough challenge in this market, particularly now that competitive and competitive all-electric SUVs are a reality.
The lower half of the graph is populated by a fairly standard group. The Renault Zoe, once queen of Europe, follows the Model Y in sixth place with 408 registrations, followed by the Volkswagen ID.3 in seventh place with 356 registrations. The German BEV is now consistently among the top 10 Italian models on a monthly basis, but it is not as successful here as in other European countries, where it generally challenges the Model 3 in the top spots. The Opel Corsa-e, Volkswagen e-up! And Peugeot e-2008, with more than 200 registrations each, close this list of monthly sales for the third quarter.
Things are starting to move fast in Europe and Italy alike. The exponential growth of electric mobility is showing its daring face to the shocked media as BEVs hit the tipping point and ICE sales continue to decline at a remarkable rate. Rising fossil fuel prices will only speed up the process as we head into 2022 that will be filled with electrical surprises and fossil failures.
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